Method

Over five weeks I put five questions about the future on five public sites, each with a number on it: The Belt Equation, the AGI Zeitgeist, The Quiet Galaxy, The Upgrade Tree and Outrunning Ageing. They share one way of working: break the question into things that can be checked, give each a test and a named judge, work the number out from them, read them against the news every week with a reader that has no memory, and keep what people said beside what the world did. Most of it is borrowed from forecasting, trial registration and evidence review. This essay says which parts I have not found anywhere else, and why the hopes behind the sites stay out of their records.