Forecasting

Every year you live, medicine gets a little better, and every year you age by one. For a person in middle age, ageing still wins by most of a year. I built Outrunning Ageing to ask when, if ever, medical repair overtakes ageing. It breaks the question into forty-four specific treatments on eight branches, gives each a test and a range of years, and plays the tree out two hundred thousand times. As of 17 October 2026 the middle estimate is 2058, with a 4.1 percent chance before 2050. Beside the year sits a dated log of who promised what and when, scored as the dates pass, and a weekly reading of the news that moves a number only when the evidence does.

What is the probability that, before I die, I get to live and work in a solar system where human industry reaches beyond Earth and Mars? Following the astronomer Frank Drake's example, I wrote down the seventy things that would have to happen first, put a number on each, had two other AI models argue with every number, and let the arithmetic answer. The answer is half a percent. It is public, and it gets scored against reality every January.