The Expanse

What is the probability that, before I die, I get to live and work in a solar system where human industry reaches beyond Earth and Mars? Following the astronomer Frank Drake's example, I wrote down the seventy things that would have to happen first, put a number on each, had two other AI models argue with every number, and let the arithmetic answer. The answer is half a percent. It is public, and it gets scored against reality every January.